Buy stock for market stalls

Buy stock for market stalls

Posted: kuzmit4 Date: 12.06.2017

The post-election euphoria has given way to a month of the market going nowhere.

So what's an individual investor managing their own money to do? Diverging views from billionaires on a Trump stock strategy aren't much help.

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Liberal icon George Soros still thinks his uber-pessimistic Trump short will be proved right. John Paulson — who was right about the "Big Short" — has increased his long exposure. And eternal America optimist Warren Buffett — being Buffett — told CNBC on Friday that the United States will be just fine under Trump, though he has no idea where the stock market will go in the next 10 days or two years.

A look at how average, ordinary millionaires who manage their own stock portfolios are investing might offer better advice. They aren't showing signs of doubt, according to results from an E-Trade Financial survey conducted this month and provided exclusively to CNBC. And they are even more bullish on the stock market, even if they don't expect a major move up in the first quarter and do expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates several times this year. Only 10 percent of millionaires said they plan to move out of market positions and into cash as Donald Trump takes office.

For most investors, it's a choice between equities, bonds, real estate and cash. W hat I see is cautious optimism, " Loewengart said. When asked how they would grade the U. Only 5 percent give the economy an A. But only 23 percent of millionaire investors said their feelings about the future of the U.

When asked if the economy is healthy enough for the Fed to raise rates, only 20 percent of millionaires "strongly agree," but 56 percent "somewhat agree. The survey showed that they expect two rate hikes 61 percent or three rate hikes 19 percent this year, consistent with the market consensus. The millionaire view of an economy that is working, if not firing on all cylinders, translates into expectations of a stock market that will gain, but may take its time.

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Only 42 percent of these millionaire investors think the market with end the first quarter 5 percent higher. Even less, only 8 percent, see a gain of 10 percent. The combined 41 percent of millionaires who think the market will "basically stay where it is" 24 percent or drop by 5 percent 17 percent , matches the 42 percent who think stocks will rise by 5 percent. This view is leading millionaire investors to keep market bets focused primarily on sectors that they think will do well and benefit from Fed rate hikes.

In essence, it's the same view that led the post-election November rally that is still prevailing among investors in January, even as the market stalled. Sixty-six percent said financial stocks will benefit from a Trump presidency — the highest sector confidence in the survey — followed by industrial stocks at 60 percent. The sectors that are the most-sensitive to rising interest rates are in the millionaire doghouse. Less than 15 percent of these investors said utilities, consumer staples and telecom will benefit.

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Technology and consumer discretionary also fell within the same sector losers' group. Meanwhile, the big dividend payers — utilities, staples and telecom — are now losing out as investors weigh the cost of seeking income from stocks when rates are going up.

Loewengart said there will be volatility in bonds, but the case in recent years for taking equity market risk in the search for income is much less compelling now; so investors are stepping away from "bond-like equities. The survey was conducted from January 1 to January 10 of among an online U. The panel is broken into thirds of active trade more than once a week , swing trade less than once a week but more than once a month and passive trade less than once a month.

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Register Log In Profile Email Preferences PRO Sign Out. The market has stalled, but millionaire stock investors aren't bailing on Trump Eric Rosenbaum erprose. Giving the economy a grade "When they look at the landscape available to them, they still view stocks as the best bet," said Mike Loewengart, vice president of investment strategy at E-Trade. Sector bets This view is leading millionaire investors to keep market bets focused primarily on sectors that they think will do well and benefit from Fed rate hikes.

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buy stock for market stalls

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